Not every opportunity is worth chasing
Business owners are constantly presented with new market opportunities. A customer asks if you serve a different industry. An agent suggests selling in a new region. A competitor announces expansion into an adjacent market.
The excitement of growth can lead to chasing every opportunity, which dilutes your focus and resources. A systematic evaluation framework helps you make better decisions.
Step 1: Size the opportunity
How big is this market in dollar terms? How many potential customers exist? What is the realistic revenue you could capture in the first 12 months?
Be conservative. If the total addressable market is $100 million, your realistic capture in year one might be 0.1% ($100,000), not 1% ($1 million). Use bottom up estimates based on the number of customers you could realistically reach and convert.
Step 2: Assess product market fit
Does your current product serve this market as is, or does it need modification? Minor adjustments (different messaging, localised pricing) are manageable. Major product changes (new features, different compliance requirements) are expensive and risky.
The best new markets are ones where your existing product solves a real problem without significant changes.
Step 3: Analyse the competition
Who serves this market today? How entrenched are they? What are their weaknesses?
A market with no competitors might mean no demand. A market with many competitors confirms demand but may be hard to enter. The ideal is a market with moderate competition and clear gaps you can fill.
Step 4: Evaluate your go to market
How will you reach customers in this market? Do you have access to the right channels? Can you recruit commission agents who are active there?
Check Zepys and your existing network for agents who have experience in the target market. If you can find experienced agents quickly, the market is more accessible.
Step 5: Run a low cost test
Before committing resources, run a 90 day market test. Recruit two to three commission agents, provide them with market specific materials, and set clear targets: 15 qualified conversations and 3 closed deals.
If agents can generate interest and close deals with minimal support, the market is validated. If they struggle, dig into why before investing further.
Decision framework
Score each opportunity on four dimensions (1 to 5 scale):
Market size and growth: Is it big enough and growing? Product fit: Does your product work without major changes? Competitive advantage: Can you win against existing players? Go to market feasibility: Can you reach and sell to customers efficiently?
A score of 15 or above out of 20 is a strong opportunity. Below 12, pass or table for later.
The bottom line
Systematic evaluation prevents you from chasing shiny objects and wasting resources on poor fit markets. Size the opportunity, assess fit, analyse competition, evaluate your go to market, and validate with a low cost test before committing.